Supply continues to weaken, ABS market may weaken and consolidate

In July, ABS / PS prices showed a downward trend. According to the latest tracking, the production capacity of ABS shutdown maintenance is about 1.05 million tons, an increase of 425% over the previous month; The production capacity involved in PS shutdown and maintenance is about 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 48% over the previous month. Overall, the overall maintenance of ABS / PS in this month decreased by 390000 tons, a decrease of 14%.

Except for the load reduction of Shandong Haijiang, LG Yongxing and several units, there is no shutdown and maintenance plan for large units, and the overall output has decreased significantly compared with last month. Shandong Haijiang is a cross month maintenance, and the whole line has been shut down since June 27. The maintenance time has been more than one month, and it has not been restarted at present; LG Yongxing started maintenance on July 15 and reduced the load for production. In August, the unit load has been increased to full load. In addition, Jilin Petrochemical slightly reduced its load, less than half of Zhenjiang Qimei's construction was started, LG Huizhou's construction was around 50%, and Ningbo Taihua was operated under reduced load. According to the latest information, Shanghai Gaoqiao was put into operation with reduced load on August 1, with 85% of the construction started for 12 days. The 600000t / a ABS device of Liaoning Jinfa New Material Co., Ltd. was qualified on August 3. At present, the operating load is low.

According to table 2, the peak maintenance period of PS unit has ended in succession this month, and the supply pressure has increased compared with that before. The units of Anhui Haoyuan, Xinghui environmental materials, Ningbo Taihua, Dushanzi Petrochemical and Zhanjiang Xinmei have been overhauled in July; However, Lu'an Qingfeng, Hebei Baosheng, changya petrochemical, Shandong Lanhua and Shandong Yuhuang are still in the process of shutdown and maintenance, and there is no restart plan. In addition, Ineos benling Ningbo has a maintenance plan in early August; CITIC Guoan, with a unit capacity of 460000 tons / year, has been shut down on August 2.

In July, the operating rate of ABS / PS devices was relatively low. Although most of the market sources were tight, the market prices of some brands had dropped to the psychological level of some people. The trend of next month's market needs to pay attention to the fluctuation of upstream and supply and demand information. If the terminal demand is expected to remain low, the supply continues to weaken, and the market may weaken and consolidate, but some brands may rebound without risk elimination.