The import volume will increase, and the polyolefin supply pressure will be small in September

The situation in Russia and Ukraine is still tense, the European Union has imposed sanctions on Russian oil and gas, the US crude oil inventory is still low, the international oil price is still high, and the polyolefin cost is still supported. Polyolefin profit is still under pressure, and its load is reduced, and it continues to maintain at a low level of about 80%. In addition, no new production capacity has been put into production recently, and the import volume will increase in September, so the supply pressure of polyolefin is not large.

However, after the closure of Shanghai, the resumption of construction in the downstream has been very slow, and it is difficult to place orders in large quantities. The downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing and resist the high price of raw materials, and the operating rate is lower than that in previous years. However, the supply and demand have improved slightly in the near future. In addition, the spot price is low, and the downstream stock has increased. As of July 28, the early storage of petrochemicals had dropped to 610000 tons, 45000 tons less than that of the same period last year, and the inventory pressure was not great. After the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 75 basis points as expected, industrial products rebounded collectively. Therefore, under the support of cost, demand is expected to rebound, and polyolefin is expected to have a strong shock. Since the new production capacity and import volume will put pressure on the 01 contract, we can adopt the strategy of more 09 empty 01.